Lions Pre-Season Prediction

“The night of the fight, you may feel a slight sting. That's pride fucking with you. Fuck pride. Pride only hurts, it never helps” – Marcellus Wallace

Over the last decade or so, the Detroit Lions know a little something about playing for pride. Regardless of how overmatched, the Lions have consistently prided themselves on not giving up when times proved difficult. Sure the Lions have been on the unfortunate side of some bad luck. I mean who could have ever seen the Matt Millen thing coming? Joey Harrington, Charles Rogers, Mike Williams all busts? Like any true diehard Lions fan, I believe everything Mel Kiper Jr. says, and I’m pretty sure he was pretty damn high on most every Matt Millen first round pick. But who am I fucking kiddin, the Lions have no fucking pride. The whole organization is a complete joke. Every year I find myself eating the cornbread and drinkin the kool-aid…in case you Lions diehards forgot, Drew Brees did pass for 6 TDs vs. the Lions on opening weekend....pretty sure if you replay that game, Brees could have easily thrown for 10 TDs…basically the 2009 Detroit Lions season ended during the first quarter of the opening game…Logically, if pride is a nonfactor for the Lions, then playing meaningful football becomes much simpler; just play as the better football team on Sundays…

As much as I would like to breakdown the entire Lions offseason and talk about every free agent they have brought in. Rather I would like to focus on the MGM Mirage future odds. As of yesterday, the MGM Mirage has set the 2010-11 Lions Regular Season Win total at 5 games. Normally I advise everyone to stay away from betting on or against the Lions because they always find a way to fuck you. That’s a fact. However, setting the win total at 5 games seems a little odd. Two years ago I would have bet my life that the Toronto Argonauts would easily bet the Lions if they matched up on the field. Heck, Vegas would have likely made the Lions 4 point underdogs in that game. Let’s take a look at the 2010-11 Detroit Lions schedule (see below):

September 12 - at Chicago Bears
September 19 - vs. Philadelphia Eagles
September 26 - at Minnesota Vikings
October 3 - at Green Bay Packers
October 10 - vs. St. Louis Rams
October 17 - at New York Giants
October 24 - BYE
October 31 - vs. Washington Redskins
November 7 - vs. New York Jets
November 14 - at Buffalo Bills
November 21 - at Dallas Cowboys
November 25 - vs. New England Patriots
December 5 - vs. Chicago Bears
December 12 - vs. Green Bay Packers
December 19 - at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
December 26 - at Miami Dolphins
January 2 - vs. Minnesota Vikings

The best way to analyze the Lions win-loss total is to group the games into three categories:

Winnable: Likely the favorite or near coin toss to win; other team appears on paper equal

Grey Area: Difficult to predict; bias may overshadow reality; game where upsets happen

No Fucking Chance: Mark it up a loss now; Lions will not win; no debate here

Groupings

No Fucking Chance:

September 26 - at Minnesota Vikings (assume Favre is starting)
October 3 - at Green Bay Packers
October 17 - at New York Giants
November 21 - at Dallas Cowboys

Grey Area:

September 12 - at Chicago Bears
September 19 - vs. Philadelphia Eagles
November 7 - vs. New York Jets
November 25 - vs. New England Patriots (thanksgiving, anything can fucking happen)
December 26 - at Miami Dolphins
January 2 - vs. Minnesota Vikings

Winnable:

October 10 - vs. St. Louis Rams
October 31 - vs. Washington Redskins
November 14 - at Buffalo Bills
December 5 - vs. Chicago Bears
December 12 - vs. Green Bay Packers
December 19 - at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I am not going to waste my time and try breaking down every fucking game now. The opportunity cost is too great and my time is too valuable. But I will say this; every NFL team has expectations and Vegas clearly believes the Lions should be around 5 wins this season. (note: the line hasn’t moved since coming out after the draft..it was originally at 5.5 wins)..The schedule sets up to give the Lions a good shot at covering the 5 win total….of course you must assume there are no devastating injuries (little depth on the roster)..



Prediction

My Swami instincts says…7-9

You heard me dudes, the stars aligned for the Lions this season. They will cover the season win total line and the city of Detroit will be pouring malt liquor all over every plus sized women’s chest..

The pride will be restored…the roar will be back..

Oh yeah, one last prediction…during the early part of the season….there will be controversy. When the Lions are playing in Green Bay, frequent JBS contributor Bmase will find himself in a hot tub at the Embassy suites in GB with several Lions OL including former Lion Aaron Gibson….consequently his current girlfriend will leave him and move out to Philadelphia with her sister to start up (and star) in interracial bondage films…

Mallard

PS - I have zero to do with this post E. -Mmase